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Half Life, by Geoffrey P. Forster
Free Ebook Half Life, by Geoffrey P. Forster
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In Half Life Forster documents a detailed study of corporate survival trends, and examines and extends the existing landscapes, tools, models and indexes used to monitor the corporate life cycle. Forster goes on to describe the creation of a new business fitness landscape model, introduces two new business risk parameters, creates a new business diversity fitness index, and completes a macro analysis of the extinction rates associated with the 100 largest corporations in the United States. With these new tools Forster establishes a new model for viewing the mean life and half life of large corporations and for studying the impact that related and unrelated diversification in industry participation has on a corporation's effective lifespan. Forster suggests that established corporations don't survive just by being the fittest, but that they survive rapid discontinuous change by finding a new optimum position in a new business fitness landscape.
- Sales Rank: #5406961 in Books
- Brand: Brand: APAC Press
- Published on: 2011-02-04
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 5.98" h x 1.00" w x 9.02" l, 1.57 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 380 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
From the Inside Flap
What is the lifetime of a corporation? This is a critical question for it impacts not only how we make longer term investments in established corporations, it also impacts how often we need to restructure an investment portfolio. �
Large, established, and once successful corporations and their associated brands continually emerge and disappear in any healthy, competitive business environment. However an important trend is emerging in that the mean life time for large established corporations has more than halved in the last 50 years. This observation is of critical importance to business analysts, investors, executives and corporate directors, for it is a core parameter in determining the long term valuation of a business.�
In Half Life Forster documents a detailed study of corporate survival trends, and examines and extends the existing landscapes, tools, models and indexes used to monitor the corporate life cycle. Forster goes on to describe the creation of a new business fitness landscape model, introduces two new business risk parameters, creates a new business diversity fitness index, and completes a macro analysis of the extinction rates associated with the 100 largest� corporations in the United States.�
With these new tools Forster establishes a new model for viewing the mean life and half life of large corporations, and for studying the impact that related and unrelated diversification in industry participation has on a corporation's effective lifespan. Forster suggests that established corporations don't survive just by being the fittest, but that they survive rapid discontinuous change by finding a new optimum position in a new business fitness landscape.
From the Back Cover
"In this book, written with both brio and Cartesian rigor, Forster focuses on the phenomenon of the decay of large corporations and draws from multidisciplinary metrics and analogies to propose a groundbreaking methodology. This methodology leads to surprising results and identifies a key contributing factor to the survival of the world's most successful corporations.� Forster�s Half Life is a meticulous piece of work, resulting in a powerful set of highly usable new tools, and some fascinating conclusions."�
�-�� Fares Nassar, CEO, Lotier International
"Half Life is an inspiring book for anyone concerned with forecasting the future of large corporations. Its underlying thesis brings a new perspective for looking at the giant players in all industries. Its observations on the effects of discontinuous change have special relevance to the energy business."
-�� Dr Claude Cahen, Renewable Energy
"Half Life confirms that the old theory of buy and hold, even with respect to blue-chip stocks, is a very dangerous strategy. There is no place now for a set-it and forget-it strategy since the effective life of even the largest and best run corporation is surprisingly short. Forster's book is a valuable read for any savvy investor with a mathematical inclination."
-�� Dr. Ivan Vachovsky, Founder, Aplus.Net and Rodopi Software
"Using new thinking and complex statistical modeling, Forster presents a new way of looking at highly successful organizations.� For anyone wanting to take a scholarly look at the survival trends of the American corporation, Half Life is the starting point."
-�� Dr. Brad Phillips, President and CEO, IEBC
"For a successful company, few decisions are�as difficult as the decision to change.�Half Life�encourages its reader�to apply individual experience against new fitness indices,�providing new insights and objective analyses at both the macro and micro levels.�Half Life has lessons that will not decay."
-� Dr Steve Zeigler, Principal Technologist, Wind River
About the Author
GEOFFREY FORSTER has a BE in Electrical Engineering and a PhD in Strategic Management, is a published author in business management, and has over twenty five years of industry experience. During this time Geoff has worked as an industrialist, executive manager, entrepreneur, researcher, and business consultant on the application and impact of disruptive technologies. This work has been with a wide range of start-ups, mid-size, and large corporations, in both North America and Asia Pacific. Geoff has worked with some of the world's leading corporations, including IBM, Fujitsu, NTT Docomo, Westpac, Plessey GPT, ROLM, ITT, NASA, HSBC, Avaya, Wind River, and Intel. Geoff also has experience with a number of successful start-ups, including ATC, Tatum Partners, MediaDNA, c3Global, ObjectStar, SunKosi Capital, and Assured Geoengineering. As a consultant, an independent director, and advisory board member, Geoff plays an active role in business development, change management, research, and corporate governance in both Asia Pacific and North America. Geoff lives in Del Mar,�California, with his wife and family.
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A must read for strategic management
By Jacqueline
This is a very tightly structured book in which the author does a great job to introduce the reader to the organization and strategy that the research behind the book is going to take. What is covered, what will not be covered, the research data and methodologies are all spelled out. The key terms are also well defined. I would have like it better if the application of the research was not limited to U.S. corporations and if some of the models and techniques detailed in the book had been applied to more case studies. That said I found the case studies that are presented, very interesting, especially the comments and analysis on Xerox, Kodak, IBM, General Motors, and Microsoft. Forster’s Half Life does admit however, that it takes a very demographic approach in that it focuses on whole populations and communities of corporations versus making any attempt to focus on individual corporations and case studies.
Forster is also very up-front in declaring that the book focuses on the disequilibrium, heterogeneity, and entrepreneurial discovery that characterizes the Austrian School of business strategy research, versus the equilibrium, empirical regularities, and planned execution of says the PIMS Industrial Organization approach.
If you are into strategic management research, this is a must-read!
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
The significance of Forster's book "Half Life"
By Sue Blanche
I enjoyed reading the book "Half Life," although I must say I skipped over some of the heavier mathematical details as I was more focused on the ideas and the approach rather than any need to examine any proof from first principles.
The book is excellent in applying a multi-disciplinary approach to strategic management research ie the usual strategic management research literature plus evolutionary theory theory plus portfolio theory plus fractals plus a heavy dose of mathematical modelling. I think the quote from Microsoft ex-CEO Steve Ballmer in 2006 really sums up the significance of many of the ideas introduced in this book ie "I'd argue that even the great companies generally wind up having a single core, and that core either dies, or gets humdrum, and somebody else does the new thing."
I do think it would be great to see a new version/sequel to this book published with a less academic approach so that more of the many significant ideas introduced in "Half Life" could reach a bigger audience.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Review of Geoff's book
By Mark G. Dunatov
For me, the most interesting analysis in the book is how Forster extends post-modern portfolio theory (PMPT) by adding two new significant risk parameters to be applied to a portfolio of corporations. These parameters Theta and Tau are worth a lot more analysis. Forster establishes from first principles that Theta, for the Half Life of a corporation, is equal to the natural log of 2 divided by the industry attrition rate A, and that Tau, for the mean life of a corporation is equal to 1 divided by the attrition rate A. Furthermore, Forster presents detailed data that reveals that the rate of decay of corporations has increased from 3.8% per annum in 1955 to 9.5% per annum by 2008. This suggests that the life of a major corporation is at least 50% shorter in this decade compared to the life of a large corporation in the 1950s. Forster doesn’t commit to the ultimate cause of this major change, but suggests it relates to the rate of technical change or the rate at which the overall business fitness landscape changes.
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